Win Rate Calculator
Calculate your trading win rate and the minimum needed for profitability
What is Win Rate?
Win rate is the percentage of your trades that are profitable. It's one of the key metrics traders use to evaluate their strategy, but it's often misunderstood - a high win rate doesn't guarantee profitability.
The Win Rate Formula
Win Rate = (Winning Trades / Total Trades) x 100
Example: 45 wins out of 100 trades = 45% win rate
Win Rate Examples
Example 1: Day Trader
Trading Stats:
- Total Trades: 200
- Winning Trades: 90
- Losing Trades: 110
Calculation:
Win Rate = 90 / 200 x 100
= 45%
Example 2: Swing Trader
Trading Stats:
- Total Trades: 50
- Winning Trades: 28
- Losing Trades: 22
Calculation:
Win Rate = 28 / 50 x 100
= 56%
Breakeven Win Rate by Risk Reward
Your breakeven win rate depends entirely on your risk reward ratio. Here's the formula:
Breakeven Win Rate = 1 / (1 + R:R)
Where R:R is your risk reward ratio as a decimal
| Risk:Reward | Breakeven Win Rate | Comfortable Target |
|---|---|---|
| 1:0.5 | 66.7% | 75%+ |
| 1:1 | 50% | 55%+ |
| 1:1.5 | 40% | 45%+ |
| 1:2 | 33.3% | 40%+ |
| 1:3 | 25% | 35%+ |
| 1:4 | 20% | 30%+ |
Expected Value (Expectancy)
Combining win rate with risk reward gives you expectancy - how much you expect to make per trade:
Expectancy = (Win Rate x Avg Win) - (Loss Rate x Avg Loss)
Example: 45% win rate, 1:2 R:R ($100 risk, $200 reward)
= (0.45 x $200) - (0.55 x $100)
= $90 - $55
= +$35 per trade
Why Win Rate Alone Doesn't Matter
A trader with 30% win rate can be more profitable than one with 70% win rate. What matters is the combination of win rate AND risk reward:
70% Win Rate (Bad R:R)
Average win: $50 | Average loss: $150
Expectancy = (0.70 x $50) - (0.30 x $150)
= $35 - $45
= -$10 per trade (losing!)
35% Win Rate (Good R:R)
Average win: $300 | Average loss: $100
Expectancy = (0.35 x $300) - (0.65 x $100)
= $105 - $65
= +$40 per trade (profitable!)
Realistic Win Rate Expectations
- Scalping: 55-70% (requires tight R:R)
- Day Trading: 40-55%
- Swing Trading: 35-50%
- Trend Following: 30-40% (relies on big winners)
Win Rate Warning
Be skeptical of anyone claiming 80%+ win rates. Even the best traders rarely exceed 60% consistently. If someone promises high win rates, ask about their risk reward - they're likely risking a lot to make a little.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do you calculate win rate in trading?
Win Rate = (Number of Winning Trades / Total Number of Trades) x 100. For example, if you won 45 out of 100 trades, your win rate is 45%.
What is a good win rate for trading?
A good win rate depends on your risk reward ratio. With a 1:2 R:R, you only need 33% to be profitable. With 1:1 R:R, you need above 50%. Most successful traders have win rates between 40-60%.
Is a 50% win rate profitable?
A 50% win rate is profitable if your average win is larger than your average loss. With a 1:2 risk reward ratio and 50% win rate, you make 0.5R profit per trade on average.
How do I calculate my breakeven win rate?
Breakeven Win Rate = 1 / (1 + Risk Reward Ratio). For a 1:2 R:R: 1 / (1 + 2) = 33.3%. For a 1:3 R:R: 1 / (1 + 3) = 25%.
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Risk Disclosure: Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Last updated: December 2025